1 00:00:06,769 --> 00:00:04,070 the first first graph first two graphs I 2 00:00:09,879 --> 00:00:06,779 showed showed that there is no apparent 3 00:00:12,950 --> 00:00:09,889 beneficial effect of the drugs and 4 00:00:16,840 --> 00:00:12,960 another peculiarity is that here you 5 00:00:20,300 --> 00:00:16,850 have an infectious disease that doesn't 6 00:00:24,590 --> 00:00:20,310 kill the very young and the very old in 7 00:00:27,259 --> 00:00:24,600 the way most diseases do it kills 8 00:00:30,650 --> 00:00:27,269 primarily people who are in the prime 9 00:00:34,760 --> 00:00:30,660 years of adulthood and I don't think 10 00:00:40,160 --> 00:00:34,770 that makes any sense I think I have time 11 00:00:45,130 --> 00:00:40,170 to talk about the skewness effect what 12 00:00:49,670 --> 00:00:45,140 does testing HIV positive actually mean 13 00:00:54,400 --> 00:00:49,680 testing HIV positive says there is some 14 00:00:58,549 --> 00:00:54,410 sort of immune system response and it's 15 00:01:00,470 --> 00:00:58,559 extremely nonspecific you may test HIV 16 00:01:04,460 --> 00:01:00,480 positive if you've just been vaccinated 17 00:01:07,820 --> 00:01:04,470 for flu if you have tuberculosis you're 18 00:01:12,020 --> 00:01:07,830 almost certain to test positive on these 19 00:01:15,499 --> 00:01:12,030 tests the ability of the immune system 20 00:01:21,080 --> 00:01:15,509 to respond like that appears to be the 21 00:01:25,190 --> 00:01:21,090 maximum around 40 years of age and in my 22 00:01:28,550 --> 00:01:25,200 book I summarize the way in which a 23 00:01:32,539 --> 00:01:28,560 chart testing HIV positive varies with 24 00:01:36,429 --> 00:01:32,549 age and this summarizes a great number 25 00:01:41,929 --> 00:01:36,439 of groups prisoners blood donors gay men 26 00:01:46,340 --> 00:01:41,939 what have you decreased from birth into 27 00:01:49,069 --> 00:01:46,350 the teens maximum in middle-aged males 28 00:01:52,280 --> 00:01:49,079 testing positive more frequently than 29 00:01:54,980 --> 00:01:52,290 females except in the lower teenage 30 00:02:03,830 --> 00:01:54,990 years when females tend to test positive 31 00:02:06,499 --> 00:02:03,840 more often than males but it is not 32 00:02:09,889 --> 00:02:06,509 always the same cross-section of the 33 00:02:12,770 --> 00:02:09,899 population that gets tested for HIV and 34 00:02:13,520 --> 00:02:12,780 in the early 80s the people who were 35 00:02:18,559 --> 00:02:13,530 being 36 00:02:22,610 --> 00:02:18,569 Stud were largely gay men who either 37 00:02:24,530 --> 00:02:22,620 were already ill or thought for good 38 00:02:31,580 --> 00:02:24,540 reason that they were in danger of 39 00:02:34,820 --> 00:02:31,590 becoming ill and so instead of instead 40 00:02:37,370 --> 00:02:34,830 of this more or less normal curve for 41 00:02:43,340 --> 00:02:37,380 testing positive you had a shoulder on 42 00:02:49,040 --> 00:02:43,350 the left here at younger ages the 43 00:02:53,000 --> 00:02:49,050 shifting skewness to the to the at to 44 00:03:01,850 --> 00:02:53,010 later ages deaths at later ages in the 45 00:03:06,590 --> 00:03:01,860 more recent years are because people of 46 00:03:10,090 --> 00:03:06,600 all ages not necessarily ill are being 47 00:03:15,160 --> 00:03:10,100 tested more and more frequently so that 48 00:03:21,380 --> 00:03:15,170 shoulder on the lower age side 49 00:03:23,300 --> 00:03:21,390 disappeared but if you test HIV positive 50 00:03:26,000 --> 00:03:23,310 the mainstream view is you've got a 51 00:03:29,420 --> 00:03:26,010 deadly infection that requires you to be 52 00:03:36,110 --> 00:03:29,430 treated with antiretroviral drugs and 53 00:03:39,319 --> 00:03:36,120 those drugs are incredibly toxic don't 54 00:03:42,130 --> 00:03:39,329 take my word for it read the treatment 55 00:03:48,080 --> 00:03:42,140 guidelines he is the latest version 56 00:03:51,650 --> 00:03:48,090 available on the NIH website the risk of 57 00:03:56,810 --> 00:03:51,660 several non aids-defining conditions 58 00:04:01,250 --> 00:03:56,820 including heart liver kidney and cancer 59 00:04:04,849 --> 00:04:01,260 is greater than the risk for AIDS if you 60 00:04:08,270 --> 00:04:04,859 are on antiretroviral treatment you are 61 00:04:11,569 --> 00:04:08,280 more likely to die from the drug side 62 00:04:14,210 --> 00:04:11,579 effects than you are from the disease 63 00:04:19,219 --> 00:04:14,220 for which you're supposedly being 64 00:04:22,640 --> 00:04:19,229 treated so the rates of death among 65 00:04:27,360 --> 00:04:22,650 hiv-positive people have gone up because 66 00:04:31,490 --> 00:04:27,370 of these additional causes of death drag 67 00:04:36,900 --> 00:04:31,500 induced and these drugs produce death 68 00:04:41,189 --> 00:04:36,910 only after a decade or so and so the 69 00:04:45,360 --> 00:04:41,199 curve the age distribution of deaths 70 00:04:50,520 --> 00:04:45,370 from HIV disease has grown a shoulder 71 00:04:57,150 --> 00:04:50,530 has been skewed to later ages because of 72 00:05:02,730 --> 00:04:57,160 the antiretroviral treatment thank you 73 00:05:07,170 --> 00:05:02,740 and I had a timer to I also want to 74 00:05:11,969 --> 00:05:07,180 thank Karen and Tom Dykstra for prodding 75 00:05:24,480 --> 00:05:11,979 me into the PowerPoint age and and Mike 76 00:05:31,780 --> 00:05:24,490 Wilson for personal tutoring in it do we 77 00:05:36,980 --> 00:05:35,270 so in your data if you appear to make 78 00:05:38,810 --> 00:05:36,990 the assumption that all the people who 79 00:05:42,140 --> 00:05:38,820 have tested positive for aids are also 80 00:05:43,880 --> 00:05:42,150 receiving the treatment for AIDS I'm not 81 00:05:45,170 --> 00:05:43,890 sure that that's the case in fact if 82 00:05:47,120 --> 00:05:45,180 they do receive the treatment they might 83 00:05:51,320 --> 00:05:47,130 not appropriately take the treatment 84 00:05:53,270 --> 00:05:51,330 with the advertised effect of the drugs 85 00:05:55,250 --> 00:05:53,280 that you're going to get a 10 to 15 year 86 00:05:58,340 --> 00:05:55,260 lifespan and you're just looking at 87 00:05:59,840 --> 00:05:58,350 deaths and we just started in 15 years 88 00:06:01,520 --> 00:05:59,850 ago it's quite possible that it's a 89 00:06:03,620 --> 00:06:01,530 bimodal distribution or a try model 90 00:06:06,380 --> 00:06:03,630 distribution we have those people who 91 00:06:10,280 --> 00:06:06,390 are not receiving the treatment dying 92 00:06:12,140 --> 00:06:10,290 those people who maybe are take the 93 00:06:13,760 --> 00:06:12,150 treatment but aren't in the the subset 94 00:06:15,800 --> 00:06:13,770 of population that the treatment effects 95 00:06:18,950 --> 00:06:15,810 die and the people who are receiving the 96 00:06:20,030 --> 00:06:18,960 treatment haven't died yet so and I'm 97 00:06:22,220 --> 00:06:20,040 not sure if I agree with your 98 00:06:27,350 --> 00:06:22,230 explanation of the shoulder your trend 99 00:06:29,270 --> 00:06:27,360 showed it from 2004 2000 was getting 100 00:06:31,820 --> 00:06:29,280 larger and then you just explain the 101 00:06:35,000 --> 00:06:31,830 shoulder as being a effect of the drugs 102 00:06:36,950 --> 00:06:35,010 actually killing the people I'm not sure 103 00:06:40,550 --> 00:06:36,960 they would can you respond to that place 104 00:06:44,570 --> 00:06:40,560 right the everyone in the United States 105 00:06:47,870 --> 00:06:44,580 gets free treatment for AIDS we don't 106 00:06:53,210 --> 00:06:47,880 have socialized medicine except in the 107 00:06:56,469 --> 00:06:53,220 case of hiv/aids so in the United States 108 00:07:01,909 --> 00:06:56,479 not globally but in the United States 109 00:07:06,820 --> 00:07:01,919 everyone who gets tested for HIV or who 110 00:07:11,570 --> 00:07:06,830 has clinical aids gets free treatment 111 00:07:15,040 --> 00:07:11,580 yes Henry I just wanted to ask you um in 112 00:07:17,870 --> 00:07:15,050 your opinion are the other physicians 113 00:07:20,540 --> 00:07:17,880 misdiagnosing people with the disease of 114 00:07:21,560 --> 00:07:20,550 AIDS regardless of whatever may cause it 115 00:07:24,530 --> 00:07:21,570 because there is a great deal of 116 00:07:26,990 --> 00:07:24,540 controversy on the various causes of the 117 00:07:30,260 --> 00:07:27,000 disease including whether it is the via 118 00:07:33,860 --> 00:07:30,270 the HIV virus or other you know maybe 119 00:07:35,510 --> 00:07:33,870 nutritional immuno causes and that type 120 00:07:37,640 --> 00:07:35,520 of thing what's your opinion on 121 00:07:40,219 --> 00:07:37,650 physician physicians are in a dreadful 122 00:07:42,990 --> 00:07:40,229 situation because they have to accept 123 00:07:45,570 --> 00:07:43,000 what the official point of view is 124 00:07:49,620 --> 00:07:45,580 and so if there are people who they 125 00:07:52,170 --> 00:07:49,630 suspect of being HIV positive they take 126 00:07:55,110 --> 00:07:52,180 the samples send them to a lab and have 127 00:07:57,300 --> 00:07:55,120 to accept the lab results if they're 128 00:08:01,260 --> 00:07:57,310 positive they have to follow the 129 00:08:04,380 --> 00:08:01,270 official treatment guidelines the issue 130 00:08:06,900 --> 00:08:04,390 of what actually caused AIDS is really 131 00:08:09,720 --> 00:08:06,910 complicated by the fact that the 132 00:08:15,120 --> 00:08:09,730 definition has changed progressively 133 00:08:18,540 --> 00:08:15,130 from 1987 on and the diseases that are 134 00:08:20,750 --> 00:08:18,550 now classed as aids are very different 135 00:08:25,110 --> 00:08:20,760 from the ones that were the original 136 00:08:29,070 --> 00:08:25,120 1980s aids and the biggest change came 137 00:08:32,700 --> 00:08:29,080 in 1993 the Centers for Disease Control 138 00:08:36,000 --> 00:08:32,710 said anyone who's hiv-positive and has a 139 00:08:41,120 --> 00:08:36,010 certain immune system cell count less 140 00:08:44,670 --> 00:08:41,130 than 200 cells per milliliter has AIDS 141 00:08:48,060 --> 00:08:44,680 no other country in the world accepts 142 00:08:50,250 --> 00:08:48,070 that definition so if you have AIDS in 143 00:08:52,920 --> 00:08:50,260 the United States for that reason you 144 00:08:57,240 --> 00:08:52,930 can go to Canada or Mexico and you don't 145 00:09:00,480 --> 00:08:57,250 have AIDS anymore and seventy percent of 146 00:09:06,240 --> 00:09:00,490 the u.s. AIDS diagnosis are on that 147 00:09:08,160 --> 00:09:06,250 basis Henry several years ago we had a 148 00:09:10,860 --> 00:09:08,170 really interesting speaker on this 149 00:09:15,000 --> 00:09:10,870 subject can't remember the man's name 150 00:09:18,270 --> 00:09:15,010 Ruth Bernstein yeah and no Ruth yeah 151 00:09:21,750 --> 00:09:18,280 yeah and what was identified there was 152 00:09:24,120 --> 00:09:21,760 about a dozen cofactors that were some 153 00:09:29,700 --> 00:09:24,130 were strong and some were weak have you 154 00:09:32,400 --> 00:09:29,710 included the cofactor and from that list 155 00:09:36,510 --> 00:09:32,410 in there in any way or is that just too 156 00:09:39,060 --> 00:09:36,520 much work I I don't believe that that 157 00:09:43,110 --> 00:09:39,070 was actually the the cofactors are 158 00:09:44,700 --> 00:09:43,120 actually the cause of AIDS and since 159 00:09:47,840 --> 00:09:44,710 writing the book I've had a 160 00:09:51,350 --> 00:09:47,850 communication from a gay man who's been 161 00:09:55,650 --> 00:09:51,360 positive and healthy for 15 years 162 00:09:56,460 --> 00:09:55,660 because he identified the cause of the